College Confidential… Chance Me! No, Chance Me!

So many of you, I’m sure, have heard of a little website called “College Confidential”

It’s a message board centered around, what else, college life.
Mainly college admissions, but also various other college-y topics.

There are many excellent uses of the site, which I’ll post about another day. But that’s not what this is about…

Today I’m going to talk a bit about the common “Chance Me” threads and why I think they’re a bit… overrated.

So a typical “Chance Me” thread is written by a high school senior or junior who will list their stats and the schools they’re applying to. The idea is to get opinions on their chances of admissions.

Unfortunately, these students will often get their egos inflated by anonymous, like-minded, college application overachievers. But when they don’t get into every school people said they would, they ultimately end up disappointed and confused.

So today I’ll give you three reasons that “Chance Me” threads aren’t accurate.

1. The poster will over-estimate themselves.

I will tell you, quite honestly, that I’ve probably read over a hundred of these threads. They’re generally by overachieving students with stellar GPA and SAT scores, good rigor, and lots of activities .

The thing that really confuses me is how every single one of these students has “excellent recs” and “excellent essays”

Well… According to whom?
You don’t get to see your recommendations at most schools (I know I didn’t, school policy). And while most teachers won’t agree to write you a rec unless they have positive things to say about you, but these overachieving students might believe their recommendations will be:
“He was the brightest student I’ve ever had, he is the messiah of pre-calculus, also he’s incredibly good looking and smells good”

When the rec is really more like:

“He has natural ability at math above many of his peers, but this can make him a bit pretentious times. If he’s being challenged he’ll be great, but he has no patience for review. Overall though, he is a very bright student”

Good, but not stellar.

And essays are the same way.

Do you know that in 2010 40 percent of college students rated their writing abilities above average?  (article)
While being above the 50^th percentile makes you “above average” how many of you would rate being in the 51^st percentile as excellent?
Yeah… I thought so.

I have run across so many college applicants who think their essays are stellar, when really they’re just meh. They’re fine. They demonstrate a capable writer, but life changing? Not so much.

This also applies to art submissions. The faculty of the department rates art submissions, and the rating is based on this student compared to the undergraduates currently at the school. Being the best in your high school doesn’t mean you’re the best compared to other high schools, and especially college students. But nobody sends in an arts submission thinking they’re average.

These students overestimate their soft statistics to a huge degree. And on that note…

2.     They pay attention to hard factors (SAT scores and GPA) without soft factors (recs and extra curriculars) or context (school, family, finances)

Users who evaluate “chance me” threads usually look really hard at the GPA and SAT scores. Generally if the writer is in the middle 50 percent or above they “have a chance”
But this doesn’t factor in the soft factors. Evaluators usually skim the extracurriculars for 1. NHS membership 2. Some leadership and 3. Community service.

But without the hours/week count, the ranked ordering of activities by priority, and the descriptions of membership/leadership responsibilities.
And these can be huge factors in admissions decisions.

Context is another really big factor.

For instance, these threads usually have a lot of AP classes and dual enrollment classes. Both are considered to be strong on College Confidential.

But take context into consideration…. For example:

If someone from the high school I attended listed mostly dual enrollment classes, they would not be looking at Ivy League schools. Or even top tier schools. Dual enrollment classes in my high school were considered to be the middle ground between the remedial classes and the AP classes. They were not bad per-se but they certainly weren’t impressive.

Similarly, some schools offer bucket-fulls of AP classes, so that taking less than 5 is considered weak. Some only offer 2 or 3, so even one AP class is impressive.

And other soft factors that are usually under valued:
Race.
Going to A: over generalize and B: call a spade a spade.

Race plays a bigger role than most schools would like to admit. Being white can limit you. Or, heaven forbid, being an Over-Represented Minority can actually hurt you. The standards will be higher because there are more of you to choose from. I’m looking at you East Asians, Indians, and Jews (in the north-east at least).

And finally, finances.

If you’re looking at a need-blind school, this isn’t really as much of an issue.

But for a school that will take financial status into play? I’m sorry to say that you might be at a disadvantage if you can’t pay. If its between you and someone who is identical except they can pay a full ride, the full ride student will probably win. There is nothing you can do about this. I will say it a million times, a school you can afford is the most valuable thing you will find in your college search.

This isn’t to say hard factors aren’t important. But generally speaking, hard factors will keep your application in the pile. Soft factors will get you in.

3.     They’re not admissions reps/”Crapshoot” schools 

And finally. There is no formula or way to know exactly who is getting in or not. If there were there would be no admissions reps. Maybe a school needs a French Horn player for the wind symphony, or some more tennis players.
The applicants won’t know that. And that can make a huge difference.

The hard truth is there is no way to really know because you’re not an admissions person.

So what you have to do is hedge your bets. Be the best applicant you can be. And cross your fingers that lady luck is on your side.

Because many of these schools you can be overqualified, and it still won’t be enough. Hard sad truth ladies and gentleman.

College Confidential has a lot of really great uses.
But “Chance Me” threads are highly overrated.